The world is full of mysteries, and the older one of them is, the more difficult it is to solve. But of course, the human drive for answers is a persistent one, and that persistence can demonstrate time and time again how resourceful people are when they find the right motivation.
And for American historians and archaeologists, it's hard to find better motivation than the opportunity to solve a mystery that has puzzled the nation since its humblest beginnings. But while it's still too early to tell for sure, that solution may have finally come after over 400 years.
The usual history curriculum
When asked about the first European settlement in the United States, many would point to the Pilgrims who landed at Plymouth Rock in 1620 to escape religious persecution.
But while they comprised one of the earliest settlements in Colonial America, it was neither the first at all nor the first to establish a permanent foothold there.
A little further back
Those with a keener eye for history may point to a settlement in Jamestown, Virginia, that began after 104 English voyagers landed on American soil in 1607.
But while the National Park Service identified this as the first permanent English settlement in North America, that doesn't mean it was the first entirely.
Beaten by 20 years
According to NPR, the famed British explorer Sir Walter Raleigh was greatly favored by Queen Elizabeth I and, thus, was entrusted with an important mission.
His task was to mastermind the creation of an English capital in the New World. And his chosen location was an island in North Carolina's Outer Banks region.
A promising start
In 1587, approximately 115 men, women, and children landed at Roanoke Island to make this colonial dream a reality.
Since Raleigh didn't oversee operations on the island himself, PBS North Carolina reported that the colony's governor John White was tasked with its most immediate leadership. And he had a personal reason to see the colony succeed.
A historic first within weeks
Among Roanoke's colonists was Eleanor White Dare, White's pregnant daughter. And it would soon become clear how far along she was.
According to PBS North Carolina, it was just weeks after their arrival that Roanoke would host the first English baby ever born on American soil. That baby was Virginia Dare, White's granddaughter.
The leader has to leave
Before the year was out, the Roanoke colony was apparently running low on supplies. And given how precious the colonists' lives were to White, he personally undertook the journey to secure the items they needed.
However, that required sailing all the way back to England, and he wouldn't be able to return as soon as he expected.
An intolerable delay
Unfortunately for White and the Roanoke colonists, his supply run happened to coincide with a famous naval war that saw the Spanish Armada threaten England.
But while the Armada would ultimately meet its defeat, PBS North Carolina explained that the conflict delayed White's return by about three years. He would finally return to Roanoke on his granddaughter's third birthday.
The last thing he expected to see
However, when he returned to Roanoke, White was greeted by a mysterious and horrifying site. Although the colony still stood, it was completely deserted.
Not only could no trace of any of the colonists be found, but there was no evidence suggesting they had been attacked or mauled by wildlife.
One cryptic clue
In fact, the only clue that offered any hint as to where they could have gone was carved into a wooden post.
According to Artnet News, the post read "Croatoan." This was the name of a place that is now known as Hatteras Island. That island is about 65 miles from Roanoke.
Theories develop over the years
One might expect the carved name to be a promising lead as to the fates of the Roanoke colonists, but neither White nor any future searchers were ever able to find any of them.
This gave Roanoke its disturbing reputation as "The Lost Colony." And in the absence of any concrete evidence, the Roanoke mystery soon became fodder for speculation and colorful theories.
The knee-jerk reaction
According to Artnet News, a theory that sadly attracted a great deal of popularity at the time was that the Roanoke colonists were massacred by local Native Americans.
Seeing as the nearest population fitting that description lived at Croatoan, the engraving on the tree would be considered an ominous warning. However, the deserted ruins would have seemed too clean and undisturbed for this to be true.
Another suspected culprit
Despite the absence of signs of struggle, there were actually multiple theories that framed their mysterious disappearance as the result of an oddly sophisticated and clandestine massacre.
And since Roanoke Island wasn't that far from Spain's North American territories, some theorized that Spanish occupiers sought to destroy the colony of their most recent enemy before it could threaten their interests.
A tragedy that required no aggressors
However, others were more conscious of the fact that nobody showed any signs of attacking the colony when drafting their explanations for what happened at Roanoke.
Others suspected the colony couldn't hold out without the supplies and died out. But since that doesn't explain what happened to the bodies, others suggested they tried to sail to England themselves when White didn't return and was lost in a storm.
The least sad and most plausible theory
Although most theories suggested the Roanoke colonists met a sad end, the one that now holds the most modern credence suggests "The Lost Colony" left the island of their own accord.
As Croatoan Archaeological Society founder and author, Scott Dawson told PBS North Carolina, "They were never lost. The mystery is over."
The message wasn't supposed to be cryptic
As this theory holds, the colonists carved "Croatoan" into the post simply as a means of informing White where they had gone after they could no longer wait for his supplies.
And the island and its people weren't unfamiliar to White either. Upon seeing the inscription, he reportedly said, "I greatly joyed that I had found a certain token of their being at Croatoan, where Manteo was born."
Peaceful integration
According to PBS North Carolina, Manteo was a member of the Hatteras tribe who joined White on various expeditions and was baptized at Roanoke when the colony still stood.
Thus, it would seem obvious to some modern historians that when White's supply run was delayed, either Manteo or the colonists suggested traveling to Croatoan and surviving alongside the Hatteras population instead.
A brand-new yet similar theory
According to the National Park Service, a group of archaeologists called the First Colony Foundation developed a new theory in the late 2000s that they continue to unearth evidence for to this day.
It's similar to the Croatoan theory in that these archaeologists believe the colonists abandoned Roanoke Island. But the main difference is that the First Colony Foundation doesn't agree with other archaeologists on where they went.
Maybe they didn't go to Croatoan
As Artnet News outlined, the First Colony Foundation started following a promising lead in 2012 that led them 50 miles west of Roanoke to an area that is now part of Bertie County.
And while archaeologists didn't find evidence of a fort that was supposed to be there, they did find a dozen shards of pottery with clear English origins.
Why they went there in the first place
At first glance, it would seem as though there was no reason to think they would go 50 miles inland instead of their stated destination of Croatoan.
But the First Colony Foundation found reason to believe otherwise from a map that White had drawn of the Outer Banks area. Note the patch of white next to the fork in the river that the ship at the bottom left is depicted heading towards.
More promising the longer it went on
Once the First Colony Foundation uncovered the pottery at their dig site, they used a ground-penetrating radar and uncovered another suspected site about two miles away.
And once they dug there, they found even more European ceramics typically used to store food. These finds suggested the pottery's users were long-term residents in the area.
A surprise revelation
When the First Colony Foundation researchers examined that map closer, they found the two red shapes shown here that indicated English forts.
Artnet News noted that these outlines were hidden by invisible ink, which White likely deployed to conceal their positions in case the map fell into Spanish hands. The outlet also noted that White mentioned his colonists had planned to move 50 miles.
Establishing the timeline
Considering that the Jamestown settlement would be established about 20 years after the Roanoke colony was, a significant question archaeologists faced concerned how they knew the pottery belonged to Roanoke colonists and not Jamestown residents.
And while it's not impossible that these artifacts came later than the First Colony Foundation thought, the lack of tobacco pipes that everyone in the Jamestown era seemed to have suggested the pottery came from an earlier settlement.
Interesting but not universally accepted
Although the First Colony Foundation's discoveries add an interesting dimension to the Roanoke mystery, other experts have qualms with their theory. "I am skeptical," Charles Ewen from East Carolina University said, "They are looking to prove rather than seeking to disprove their theory, which is the scientific way."
Dawson's issue with the foundation's claim is even more fundamental. In his words, "Bertie was the heart of enemy territory. It is the last place they would go. The colony literally wrote down they relocated to Croatoan."
Not just sour grapes
Dawson's objection isn't a knee-jerk reaction to a new idea, as his Croatoan Archaeological Society has its own evidence to indicate that the Roanoke settlers assimilated into the Native community on Hatteras Island. That evidence also suggests their descendants lived among them for generations.
According to PBS North Carolina, researchers uncovered thousands of both Native and English artifacts that make this connection. Gun parts, rings, glassware, and writing slates were found on the same geological layer as Hatteras arrowheads and pottery.
Supported by Native histories
PBS North Carolina reported that records from Jamestown support Dawson's version of the events, as do explorer John Lawson's experiences in Croatoan over a century later. There, he met Native Americans with blue eyes who told him of their ancestors who could "speak out of a book."
Dawson said, "You're robbing an entire nation of people of their history by pretending Croatoan is a mystery on a tree. These were a people that mattered a lot."
But what about the Bertie County artifacts?
But unless there were more health-conscious Jamestown settlers than the First Colony Foundation realized, the question still remains as to how so much English pottery found its way so far west of Roanoke Island.
But at the same time, how did even more artifacts end up on Hatteras Island if they weren't brought there by people from Roanoke?
How the other artifacts traveled
Since White established his awareness of the Native community on Croatoan, it's possible that the Roanoke colonists had traded with them in his absence before they made their way westward.
Or given the relatively few artifacts recovered in Bertie County compared to Hatteras Island (at least thus far), it's also possible that the reverse could be true. But if that area was indeed enemy territory, it's hard to say who would've traded with Roanoke.
Spreading other ways
Another possibility is that the artifacts found their way to either Croatoan or Bertie County after the Roanoke colonists had disappeared.
Whether it happened before or after John White's return, it could have piqued either the Hatteras population's attention or that of another group entirely to see the colony abandoned. And since nobody was using the items they left behind, those discoverers may have seen fit to help themselves to whatever interested them.
Are they both right?
Perhaps the strongest possibility is that the First Colony Foundation and the Croatoan Archaeological Society found a wealth of artifacts at their respective dig sites because the Roanoke colonists traveled to both places.
Once it was clear that a sustainable colony on Roanoke Island wasn't possible, some may have sought survival on Croatoan and carved that intention into the post. And those who held out hope for a fort to the west may have split off from that group and headed for Bertie County.
Solved or not?
Given the different possibilities in play here, there's a chance that the First Colony Foundation has introduced the final puzzle pieces in the Roanoke mystery. Or if Dawson's Croatoan Archaeological Society turns out to be right, there wasn't a mystery to begin with.
But while it's hard to consider the matter closed while the confusion between these groups' findings still exists, the world is closer than ever to figuring out what happened on Roanoke Island.
